Charles Darwin and the Insurance Company Board

As a New Zealand taxpayer – and therefore collectively on the hook for a possible $0.5 – $1.0 billion support package (read ‘bailout’) – I was delighted to see that the Government has appointed an experienced insurance professional, John Pritchard, to the board of AMI Insurance.

It may come as a surprise – as it did to me when I read AMI’s latest annual report – to find that not one of the existing board members appears to have a background in either insurance or risk … unless you count the ownership of racehorses in the latter category. I know, and have considerable respect for, some of the directors: an outstanding retired banker, a leading former retailer, a successful market gardener, and so on. But nobody about whom I could find any experience in the industry in which AMI operates.

Going one step deeper, the Chief Executive’s own earlier career was mainly in banking, not insurance. When you look at the executive management team, you see Heads of Customer Division, Customer Experience, Marketing and Products, all of which helps us to understand how the company has been so successful in growing market share over the last decade, from a relatively small Christchurch-based insurer to one of the leaders nationwide.

However, nobody in the top team has a title that suggests deep involvement in risk management. You have to delve to what appears to be at least third tier to find someone described as Actuarial Team Leader.

I doubt whether anybody could have foreseen the destruction caused by the seismic bombs that hit Christchurch last September and more tragically on 22 February. But a part of risk management is about assessing events of low probability but high impact.

Much of AMI’s business was, not surprisingly, centred on Christchurch, where it had acquired a large share of the House and Contents insurance market, and a disproportionate concentration of its portfolio. And I have read that its reinsurance rates were among the industry’s lowest. Not being from the industry, I wouldn’t have a clue about appropriate reinsurance levels, but I do understand a little about concentration of risk.

What bothers me is that I’m not convinced that anybody else on the board would have had much more knowledge, so would not have been in a strong position to ask whether the reinsurance rates were too low for the high concentration of the company’s exposure.

My daytime business is ‘Building boards into leading teams’, and I’m the last person to suggest that everyone at the board table should come from the same industry background. To the contrary, I believe that having a range of backgrounds and perspectives is vital in achieving effective board oversight. However, having nobody at the board table with a background in the industry seems to defy common sense – because directors must be sure they are receiving the information they need in order to make good decisions. If you don’t have somebody with experience, you won’t know what you don’t know.

Without knowing the background, I can only make some assumptions about AMI’s board practices and (lack of) evolution. The Chairman has been on the board for about twenty years and several of the other directors have been there for a long time, while the CEO was appointed more than 15 years ago.

I’d imagine that some of those relationships had grown quite comfortable during the good times of rapid growth. One of the dangers when this happens is that a director who wants to ask hard questions, challenging the strategy and management’s assumptions, can feel increasingly uncomfortable and isolated if he (at AMI they’re all ‘he’) starts to ‘rock the boat.’ This is why it’s so important that a healthy board culture doesn’t just accept, but insists on dissenting views being aired.

I’d also guess that, as the business grew rapidly, the board’s priorities reflected its experience in growing businesses and satisfying customers, and didn’t focus adequately on changes to its risk exposures or concentration of its portfolio.

The lack of board turnover, combined with the directors' industry backgrounds, seems to have resulted in a failure to grasp the increasing significance of such agenda items, in line with AMI's changing position in a rapidly changing world. As Charles Darwin observed (see my earlier post on his anniversary a couple of years ago):

• It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change.

A failure to recognize this at AMI’s board table over many years may well cost you and me up to a billion dollars. Let’s hope Mr Pritchard can make enough of a difference to prevent this from happening.

Wisdom to know the difference

Most of us know the ‘Serenity Prayer,’ which asks for

• “Serenity to accept the things I cannot change; courage to change the things I can; and wisdom to know the difference.”

Sometime we find a limit to what we can achieve as an independent director.

A few years ago, I joined the Board of a company in which the Chairman and the Chief Executive had worked together since the company’s establishment. By the time I joined, they were the only two at the Board table who had been with the company from the start.

To some of us, the CEO appeared to have lost the energy for taking the business forward, despite having had some significant successes until then. The Board’s meeting agenda was usually composed mainly of rearward-looking or operational detail and we didn’t see much creative or strategic thinking - at a time when our industry was going through big changes and some of us could see exciting opportunities for the company to take a leadership position.

On the surface all our boardroom discussions were very polite and we seemed to reach a consensus on most matters - including an agreement to take a new look at the company’s direction. However, although we had some useful strategic planning discussions and regularly discussed future options, nothing seemed to change in practice.

Perhaps most telling was that any strategic ideas that came up at Board meetings were generally repeated back to us by the CEO, with no further thought or analysis - or even pushback; but month by month, nothing actually happened.

“Courage to change the things I can...” As most of us would, I suspect, we - two of us especially - kept trying to make progress. We had regular Board-alone sessions, where we discussed our concerns with the Chairman, who usually agreed with our analysis. But, when the CEO joined the meeting, the Chairman would negate any of our questions or comments, with a remark such as, “Now this isn’t meant in any way as a criticism of management.” This became so frustrating that we came to see the Chairman as ‘Counsel for the Defence’ for the CEO. Putting myself into the CEO’s position, I’m not surprised that he saw the Chairman’s comments as endoresement for taking no further action on our concerns.

“Serenity to accept the things I cannot change...” By now you’re probably asking why we didn’t raise this directly with the Chairman. We did - several times. What we gathered was that he had invested so heavily in bringing the CEO up to speed in the early days that he now didn’t have the energy - or the heart - to act. Also, in case you’re wondering about another option, there were good reasons why he was the right person to lead the Board, and changing this was not a practicable option.

“And the wisdom to know the difference...” I worked out that I had three options: to keep banging my head against the frustratingly hard wall; secondly, to wait until the Chairman retired and hope we could do something then; or to spend more of my time in places where I might be able to make a difference.

I don’t know what you’d have done in this situation. I was fortunate enough to have been offered another Board position, working with a group of people where doing nothing was never going to be an option.

I still have a sense of missed opportunity and unfinished business, and I’m not sure that I showed much ‘serenity’ in my frustration. But at least I feel I was given ‘the wisdom to know the difference’. In my new role, I know I won’t die wondering what we might have done.

Consensus governance: how Google does it - and what we can learn

I think we would agree that Google Inc has done more in the last decade to change the way we live and work than any other company. It has become the dominant leader of the digital revolution (and in doing so has probably gathered more information about you and your habits than you know yourself), much as Microsoft dominated the software industry of the previous decade.

So, if we want to understand how best to govern our own businesses nearly ten years into the twenty-first century, we should be able to learn some lessons from how Google does it. The McKinsey Quarterly recently published an interview with Google CEO, Eric Schmidt. One of the most interesting parts of this was Schmidt's explanation of how they run Google by consensus, in preference to a more traditional, hierarchical structure.

Schmidt advocates - and practises - the 'wisdom of crowds' hypothesis - which, in his words, argues that 'groups make better decisions than individuals' ... especially when they are selected from among 'the smartest and most interesting people.' That description sounds to me very much like an affirmation of sound governance by a board of directors.  

But this description raises the question - what then is the role of the leader in today's company? Or is there indeed a role for the leader?  First, says Schmidt, the leader must enforce deadlines - not the outcome.  In other words, he or she must insist on execution, but is not the person to decide the strategy alone.  I take this definition to point the finger at all those boards that make good collective decisions, but then don't ensure their decisions are acted on.

Schmidt then argues - perhaps rather threateningly to a leader uncertain of his or her position - that the second requirement is to get dissent: 'If you don't have dissent then you have a king.' This surely is one of the fundamental features of an effective board - to encourage, or even insist on, differing opinions being aired, as a way of generating discussion and reaching a genuine consensus view.  

When we look at some of the corporate disasters of the last few years, we can ask how differently things might have turned out if the leader had not driven the agenda - and the outcome he (usually it has been 'he') wanted - but instead had allowed the leadership group/team/board to reach a real consensus position; and secondly, what if they had insisted on some dissenting views - people who would play 'devil's advocate', who could ask what the real risks of the preferred strategy might be... and whose careers would not suffer as a result of doing so.

You may remember that saying of Sam Goldwyn: 'I don't want any yes-men around me. I want everybody to tell me the truth even if it costs them their jobs.' Perhaps that's the attitude that has developed in boardrooms over the last decade, which now needs to change.

Not taking part in this Recession, thanks.

If you are registered on Facebook - how else do you keep in touch with the activities and travels of three children living overseas? - and if you belong to the 'New Zealand Network', then you're welcome to sign up to (and participate in) my Group, "We've looked at the Recession and decided not to participate."

This is not a struthious ("related to, or resembling, an ostrich") attempt to ignore what is happening globally or to belittle the very real difficulties that thousands of organisations and millions of people are facing as a result of the meltdown. (Only today I heard that at least 20 million Chinese have lost work in the cities and have had to return to the relative poverty of the countryside.)

The purpose of this Group is, however, largely to remind people that recessions are also times of opportunity: unless we get into another Great Depression, most people will still have work, business will continue, and some enormous opportunities will be available to those who take a longer view, who refuse to batten down altogether and are willing to take a chance... There's the added advantage that, if you see an opportunity to invest or grow, chances are there will be fewer people competing with you - they've listened to the doomsayers telling them they should be miserable, so they've stayed home.

It's just a decision.

"Fortes fortuna juvat." (Google it, if you must.)  

Not another Economic Forecast

As we begin another year, you might like to throw yourself back twelve months and think about what we were expecting for 2008.  

With oil in January 2008 selling at about $US 85 per barrel, you might have been very smart and predicted that it would go to a record high of $US 140 or more - as it did in June. I remember some people telling us then to prepare for life at $US 200 (was that really only seven months ago?). But how many people told you last January that the price would drop below $US 50 again before the end of the year? Well, we know what has happened since: as I write, the price is almost exactly $US 100 below its peak - here's a chart showing the average monthly oil price since 1946, both nominal and in 2008 dollars.

In the last four months, we've also seen one of the largest financial markets meltdowns in history - certainly the most traumatic since 1931-32 - and the largest ever co-ordinated loosening of monetary policy.  This chart on Wikipedia shows movements in the US Federal Funds Rate over the last half century, which reveals an uncanny symmetry between 1954 and today with a 'pivot' in about 1982. But, what hit me the hardest and highlighted the significance of what has happened is this table from the Bank of England, which records the Bank Rate from October 1694 (sic, I have not transposed the digits), when the Rate was set at 6.00%.  It reached its historical low of 2.00% in April 1852, and on a few subsequent occasions, including 1932, 1939 and December 2008.  But, unless I have missed something, the Rate has never been lower than that... until last week, 8 January 2009, when it dropped to 1.50% - for the first time in more than three hundred years.

I'm no Economic Historian nor an expert in Central Banking. But I am old enough to know that central banks have spent most of the last thirty years using the few tools they have - mainly the setting of interest rates - to keep inflation low but positive, in order to provide a sound platform for the sustained economic growth that the planet has experienced over the last twenty years.

Who knows where this dramatically-loosened monetary policy will take us? Will we see a resurgence in global inflation in the next twelve months, leading to a fresh cycle of unprecedented tightening in order to stop prices running out of control; or will even these drastic cuts in interest rates (effectively to zero) fail to prevent a spiral into deflation, which none of us has experienced before? Or neither of these extremes?

I have no idea where this recession will lead, or how bad or long it will be.  I'm certainly not going to try to forecast.  

As a board member, my big lesson from the last twelve months is that we need to prepare ourselves NOT for a $US 200 oil price, nor a New Zealand dollar exchange rate of $US 0.40, nor for a specific price for any commodity (money, gold, milk powder...).  No, what I think we need to be ready for is continued volatility, where we learn to live with - and take advantage of - the unpredictability and lack of clear price trends. This calls for greater risk awareness from all board members - not necessarily risk aversion - and a real understanding of our strategic risks and opportunities. (When did your board last ask - and try to answer - questions like 'What could actually put us out of business?' and 'Where does our money really come from?')  

We all need to think carefully about what our real business is, and our own unique value proposition, since we can no longer lean on sustained economic growth or continued price inflation to cushion our poor strategic decisions.

So there we are - back on deck for another year of challenge and excitement... as the late Sir Peter Blake used to ask, 'If it was easy, why would you bother doing it?'

And, if I'm completely wrong and 2009 is a year of unprecedented calm and stability in prices, then this time next year I'll probably write about the volatility of everything, including volatility. 

Evolution - the survival of those most responsive to change

As you will of course have remembered, it was 'Evolution Week' recently, the anniversary of the launch of Charles Darwin's 'The Origin of Species' (24 November 1859).  So often we misquote him by referring broadly to 'the survival of the fittest', but Darwin's thesis is far more encouraging than that cliche indicates:

• 'It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change.'
  

Any of us can take heart from that: how strong we are and how intelligent were both decided to a large degree very early in our development as a human being (personal trainers and pop psychologists notwithstanding). But how responsive we are to change is a conscious decision, which we can take at any time.

If you want a dramatic example, finish reading here, then watch this short video on Youtube. I honestly don't know whether it's genuine - there seems to be some debate - but I've looked at it several times and it still looks good to me. Regardless, take it at face value and think about the instant decisions this pilot had to take when faced with a catastrophic change that, according to all precedents and accepted wisdom, would have given him about five seconds to live... and how responsive he was to this change.  

Now think about the changes you (and your business) face in this global downturn. And whether you'd prefer his challenges or yours.  

Have a good, adaptable, week.

(Here's the link again. To keep this window open while you open the link, click on the link with the right-hand button on your mouse and select the options of New Window or New Tab.)